Publications

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forecasting influenza dengue ebola zika incubation-period software education cluster-randomization pathogen-interactions

2018

Forecasting seasonal influenza in the U.S.: A collaborative multi-year, multi-model assessment of forecast performance

Reich NG, Brooks L, Spencer F, Kandula S, McGowan C, Moore E, Osthus D, Ray E, Tushar A,Yamana T, Biggerstaff M, Johansson MA, Rosenfeld R, and Shaman J (2018). bioRxiv.

Prospective forecasts of annual dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence in Thailand, 2010–2014

Lauer SA, Sakrejda K, Ray EL, Keegan LT, Bi Q, Suangtho P, Hinjoy S, Iamsirithaworn S, Suthachana S, Laosiritaworn Y, Cummings DAT, Lessler J and Reich NG (2018). PNAS, 115(10): E2175-E2182.

Prediction of infectious disease epidemics via weighted density ensembles

Ray EL, Reich NG (2018). PLOS Comp Bio, 14(2): e1005910.

Preprints: An underutilized mechanism to accelerate outbreak science

Johansson MA, Reich NG, Meyers LA, Lipsitch M (2018). PLOS Medicine, 15(4): e1002549.

Quantifying the Risk and Cost of Active Monitoring for Infectious Diseases

Reich NG, Lessler J, Varma JK, Vora NM (2018). Nat Sci Rep, 8: 1093.

Protecting Healthcare Personnel in Outpatient Settings: The Influence of Mandatory Versus Nonmandatory Influenza Vaccination Policies on Workplace Absenteeism During Multiple Respiratory Virus Seasons

Frederick J, Brown AC, Cummings DAT, Gaydos CA, Gibert CL, Gorse GJ, Los JG, Nyquist AC, Perl TM, Price CS, Radonovich LJ, Reich NG, Rodriguez-Barradas MC, Bessesen MT, Simberkoff MS, for the ResPECT Teama (2018). Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol, 39.

2017

Infectious Disease Prediction with Kernel Conditional Density Estimation

Ray EL, Sakrejda K, Lauer SA, Johansson MA, Reich NG (2017). Stat Med, 36: 4908-4929.

2016

Challenges in Real-Time Prediction of Infectious Disease: A Case Study of Dengue in Thailand

Reich NG, Lauer SA, Sakrejda K, Iamsirithaworn S, Hinjoy S, Suangtho P, Suthachana S, Clapham H, Salje H, Cummings DAT, Lessler J (2016). PLOS Neg Trop Dis, 10: e0004761.

Case Study in Evaluating Time Series Prediction Models Using the Relative Mean Absolute Error

Reich NG, Lessler J, Sakrejda K, Lauer SA, Iamsirithaworn S, Cummings DAT (2016). Am Stat, 70: 285-292.

Time to Key Events in the Course of Zika Infection and their Implications for Surveil- lance: A Systematic Review and Pooled Analysis

Lessler J, Ott CT, Carcelen AC, Konikoff JM, Williamson J, Bi Q, Reich NG, Cummings DAT, Kucirka LM, Chaisson LH (2016). Bull WHO, 94.

The Respiratory Protection Effectiveness Clinical Trial (ResPECT): A Cluster-Randomized Comparison of Respirator and Medical Mask Effectiveness against Respiratory Infections in Healthcare Personnel.

Radonovich LJ, Bessesen M, Cummings DAT, Eagan A, Gaydos C, Gibert C, Gorse G, Nyquist C, Reich NG, Rodriguez-Barradas M, Savor-Price C, Shaffer R, Simberkoff M, Perl TM (2016). BMC Inf Dis, 16: 243.

2015

Triggering Interventions for Influenza: The ALERT Algorithm

Reich NG, Cummings DAT, Lauer SA, Zorn M, Robinson C, Nyquist AC, Price CS, Simberkoff M, Radonovich LJ, Perl TM (2015). Clin Inf Dis, 60: 499-504.

The Effect of Cluster Size Variability on Statistical Power in Cluster-Randomized Trials

Lauer SA, Kleinman K, Reich NG (2015). PLOS ONE, 10: e0119074.

2013

Interactions between serotypes of dengue highlight epidemiological impact of cross-immunity

Reich NG, Shrestha S, King AA, Rohani P, Lessler J, Kalayanarooj S, Yoon IK, Gibbons RV, Burke DS, Cummings DAT. (2013). JRSI, 10: 20130414.

2012

Empirical power and sample size calculations for cluster-randomized and cluster-randomized crossover studies

Reich NG, Myers JA, Obeng D, Milstone AM, Perl TM (2012). PLOS ONE, 7: e35564.