Publications peer-reviewed journal articles

Disease forecasting

  • Reich NG, Lessler J, Sakrejda K, Lauer SA, Iamsirithaworn S, Cummings DAT. Case studies in evaluating time series prediction models using the relative mean absolute error. [ preprint pdf ]
  • Reich NG, Cummings DAT, Lauer SA, Zorn M, Robinson C, Nyquist AC, Price CS, Simberkoff M, Radonovich LJ, Perl TM. Triggering Interventions for Influenza: The ALERT Algorithm. Clinical Infectious Diseases. 2014.
  • MA Johansson, NG Reich, A Hota, JS Brownstein, M Santillana. Evaluating the performance of infectious disease forecasts: A comparison of climate-driven and seasonal dengue forecasts for Mexico. Scientific Reporsts. 2016.
  • Nicholas G Reich, Stephen A Lauer, Krzysztof Sakrejda, Sopon Iamsirithaworn, Soawapak Hinjoy, Paphanij Suangtho, Suthanun Suthachana, Hannah E Clapham, Henrik Salje, Derek AT Cummings, Justin Lessler. Challenges in Real-Time Prediction of Infectious Disease: A Case Study of Dengue in Thailand. PLOS Negl Trop Dis. 2016.
  • Justin Lessler, Cassandra T Ott, Andrea C Carcelen, Jacob M Konikoff, Joe Williamson, Qifang Bi, Lauren M Kucirka, Derek AT Cummings, Nicholas G Reich, Lelia H Chaisson. Times to Key Events in the Course of Zika Infection and their Implications for Surveillance: A Systematic Review and Pooled Analysis. bioRxiv. 2016.
  • Nicholas G Reich, Krzysztof Sakrejda, Stephen A Lauer, Derek A Cummings, Paphanij Suangtho, Soawapak Hinjoy, Sopon Iamsirithaworn, Hannah Clapham, Henrik Salje, Justin Lessler. Real-time Forecasting of the 2014 Dengue Fever Season in Thailand. Online Journal of Public Health Informatics. 2015.

Statistical Methods for Pathogen Interactions

  • Reich NG, Shrestha S, King AA, Rohani P, Lessler J, Kalayanarooj S, Yoon IK, Gibbons RV, Burke DS, Cummings DAT. Interactions between serotypes of dengue highlight epidemiological impact of cross- immunity. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 2013:10 (86), 20130414.

Cluster-randomized Trial Design

  • Reich NG, Myers JA, Obeng D, Milstone AM, Perl TM. Empirical power and sample size calculations for cluster-randomized and cluster-randomized crossover studies. PLoS ONE. 2014. 7(4): e35564.
  • Lauer SA, Kleinman KP, Reich NG. The Effect of Cluster Size Variability on Statistical Power in Cluster Randomized Trials. PLoS ONE. 2015:10(4), e0119074
  • Reich NG, Milstone AM. Improving efficiency in cluster-randomized study design and implementation: taking advantage of a crossover. Open Access Journal of Clinical Trials. 2014:6, 11-15.
  • Bessesen MT, Savor-Price C, Simberkoff M, Reich NG, Pavia AT, Radonovich LJ. 95 Respirators or Surgical Masks to Protect Healthcare Workers Against Respiratory Infections: Are We There Yet? American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine. 2013:187 (9), 904-905.
  • Milstone AM, Elward A, Song X, Zerr DM, Orscheln R, Speck K, Obeng D, Reich NG, Coffin SE, Perl TM for the Pediatric SCRUB Trial Study Group. Daily Chlorhexidine Bathing To Reduce Bacteremia in Critically Ill Children: a Multicenter, Cluster-Randomized, Two-Period Crossover Trial. The Lancet. 2013:381 (9872), 1099-1106.
  • Rock C, Harris AD, Reich NG, Johnson JK, Thom KA. Is hand hygiene before donning non-sterile gloves in the ICU a waste of health care worker time? A randomized controlled trial. American Journal of Infection Control. 2013. 41:11, 994-996.
  • Lewis J Radonovich, Mary T Bessesen, Derek A Cummings, Aaron Eagan, Charlotte Gaydos, Cynthia Gibert, Geoffrey J Gorse, Ann-Christine Nyquist, Nicholas G Reich, Maria Rodrigues-Barradas, Connie Savor-Price, Ronald E Shaffer, Michael S Simberkoff, Trish M Perl . The Respiratory Protection Effectiveness Clinical Trial (ResPECT): a cluster-randomized comparison of respirator and medical mask effectiveness against respiratory infections in healthcare personnel. BMC Infectious Diseases. 2016

Estimating Incubation Periods

  • Reich NG, Lessler J, et al. Using statistical uncertainty to determine upon the optimal quarantine time for Ebola. [in preparation]
  • Reich NG, Lessler J, Cummings DAT, Brookmeyer R. Estimating incubation periods with coarse data. Statistics in Medicine. 2010:28(22):2769–2784.
  • Lessler J, Reich NG, Cummings DAT and The DOHMH Swine Influenza Investigation Team. Outbreak of 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) at a New York City School. New England Journal of Medicine. 2009: 361(27):2628-2636.
  • Lessler J, Reich NG, Brookmeyer R, Perl TM, Nelson KE, Cummings DAT. A systematic review of the incubation periods of acute respiratory viral infections. Lancet Infectious Diseases. 2009: 9(5):291–300.
  • Lee RM, Lessler J, Lee RA, Rudolph KE, Reich NG, Perl TM and Cummings DAT. Incubation periods of viral gastroenteritis: a systematic review. BMC Infectious Diseases. 2013, 13:446.
  • Justin Lessler, Cassandra T Ott, Andrea C Carcelen, Jacob M Konikoff, Joe Williamson, Qifang Bi, Lauren M Kucirka, Derek AT Cummings, Nicholas G Reich, Lelia H Chaisson. Times to key events in Zika virus infection and implications for blood donation: a systematic review. Bulletin of the World Health Organization. 2016.