Filter by keywords All None
forecasting covid-19 influenza software flusight dengue incubation-period cluster-randomization opioid ebola zika education pathogen-interactions case-fatality


Optimizing the number of models included in outbreak forecasting ensembles

Fox SJ, Kim M, Meyers LA, Reich NG, Ray EL (2024). medRxiv.

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020-2021

Lopez V, Cramer EY, Pagano R, ... Biggerstaff M, Reich NG, Johansson MA (2024). PLOS Computational Biology.


Evaluating infectious disease forecasts with allocation scoring rules

Gerding A, Reich NG, Rogers B, Ray EL (2023). arXiv.

Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty

Howerton E, Contamin L, Mullany LC, Qin M, Reich NG, ... Viboud C, Lessler J (2023). Nature Communications, 14(1): 7260.

Real-time mechanistic Bayesian forecasts of COVID-19 mortality

Gibson GC, Reich NG, Sheldon D (2023). Annals of Applied Statistics, 17(3): 1801-1819.

Mixture distributions for probabilistic forecasts of disease outbreaks

Wadsworth S, Niemi J, Reich NG (2023). arXiv.

Comparison of combination methods to create calibrated ensemble forecasts for seasonal influenza in the U.S.

Wattanachit N, Ray EL, McAndrew TC, Reich NG (2023). Statistics in Medicine, 42(26): 4696-4712.

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Sherratt K, Gruson H, Grah R, ... Gibson GC, Ray EL, Reich NG, Sheldon D, Wang Y, Wattanachit N, ... Bracher J, Funk S (2023). eLife, 12: e81916.

Assessing the utility of COVID-19 case reports as a leading indicator for hospitalization forecasting in the United States

Reich NG, Wang Y, Burns M, Ergas R, Cramer EY, Ray EL (2023). Epidemics, 45: 100728.

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5-11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021-March 2022: a multi-model study

Borchering RK, Mullany LC, Howerton E, Chinazzi M, Smith CP, Qin M, Reich NG, ... Viboud C, Lessler J (2023). The Lancet Regional Health-Americas, 17: 100398.


An expert judgment model to predict early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States

McAndrew TC, Reich NG (2022). PLOS Comp Bio, 18(9): e1010485.

An evaluation of prospective COVID-19 modelling studies in the USA: from data to science translation

Nixon K, Jindal S, Parker F, Reich NG, Ghobadi K, Lee EC, Truelove S, Gardner L (2022). The Lancet Digital Health, 4(10): e738-e747.

Real-time COVID-19 forecasting: challenges and opportunities of model performance and translation

Nixon K, Jindal S, Parker F, Marshall M, Reich NG, Ghobadi K, Lee EC, Truelove S, Gardner L (2022). The Lancet Digital Health, 4(10): e699–e701.

Comparing trained and untrained probabilistic ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the United States

Ray EL, Brooks LC, Bien J, Biggerstaff M, Bosse NI, Bracher J, Cramer EY, Funk S, Gerding A, Johansson MA, Rumack A, Wang Y, Zorn M, Tibshirani RJ, Reich NG (2022). International Journal of Forecasting, 39: 1366-1383.

The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Cramer EY, Huang Y, Wang Y, Ray EL, Cornell M, Bracher J, Brennen A, Castro Rivadeneira AJ, Gerding A, House K, Jayawardena D, Kanji AH, Khandelwal A, Le K, Niemi J, Stark A, Shah A, Wattanachit N, Zorn MW, Reich NG (2022). Scientific Data, 9(1): 1-15.

Collaborative Hubs: Making the Most of Predictive Epidemic Modeling

Reich NG, Lessler J, Funk S, Viboud C, Vespignani A, Tibshirani RJ, Shea K, Schienle M, Runge MC, Rosenfeld R, Ray EL, Niehus R, Johnson HC, Johansson MA, Hochheiser H, Gardner L, Bracher J, Borchering RK, Biggerstaff M (2022). AJPH, 112(6): 839-842.

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Cramer EY, Ray EL, Lopez VK, Bracher J, ... Slayton RB, Johansson M , Biggerstaff M, Reich NG (2022). PNAS, 119(15): e2113561119.

Collaborative modeling key to improving outbreak response

Reich NG, Ray EL (2022). PNAS, 119(14): e2200703119.


Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines

Pollett S, Johansson MA, Reich NG, ... Viboud C, Brady O, Rivers C (2021). PLOS Medicine, 18(10): e1003793.

Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021

Borchering RK, Viboud C, Howerton E, Smith CP, Truelove S, Runge MC, Reich NG, ... Shea K, Lessler, J (2021). Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), 70(19): 719–724.

Improving Probabilistic Infectious Disease Forecasting Through Coherence

Gibson GC, Moran K, Reich NG, Osthus D (2021). PLOS Comp Bio.

Evaluating epidemic forecasts in an interval format

Bracher J, Ray EL, Gneiting T, Reich NG (2021). PLOS Comp Bio.

Adaptively stacking ensembles for influenza forecasting

McAndrew T, Reich NG (2021). Statistics in medicine, 40(30): 6931-6952.

Aggregating predictions from experts: A review of statistical methods, experiments, and applications

McAndrew T, Wattanachit N, Gibson GC, Reich NG (2021). Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Computational Statistics, 13(2): e1514.


Identification and evaluation of epidemic prediction and forecasting reporting guidelines: A systematic review and a call for action

Pollett S, Johansson M,Biggerstaff M, Morton LC, Bazaco SL, Major DMB, Ibarra AMS, Pavlin JA, Mate S, Sippy R, Hartman LJ, Reich NG, Maljkovic I, Chretien BJP, Althouse BM, Myer D, Viboud C, Rivers C (2020). Epidemics, 33: 100-400.

Seasonal patterns of dengue incidence in Thailand across the urban-rural gradient

Bi Q, Cummings DAT, Reich NG, Keegan LT, Kaminsky J, Salje H, Clapham H, Doung-ngern P, Iamsirithaworn S, Lessler J (2020). medRxiv.

Ensemble Forecasts of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.

Ray EL, Wattanachit N, Niemi J, Kanji AH, House K, Cramer EY, ... Reich NG on behalf of the COVID-19 Forecast Hub Consortium (2020). medRxiv.

Estimation of Excess Deaths Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States, March to May 2020

Weinberger D, Cohen T, Crawford F, Mostashari F, Olson D, Pitzer VE, Reich NG, Russi M, Simonsen L, Watkins A, Viboud C (2020). JAMA Internal Medicine.

Infectious Disease Forecasting for Public Health

Lauer SA, Brown AC, Reich NG (2020). arXiv.

The incubation period of 2019-nCoV from publicly reported confirmed cases: estimation and application

Lauer SA, Grantz KH, Bi Q, Jones FK, Zheng Q, Meredith H, Azman AS, Reich NG, Lessler J (2020). Annals of Internal Medicine.

Coordinating the real‐time use of global influenza activity data for better public health planning

Biggerstaff M et al. (2020). Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, 14(2): 105-110.

FluSense: A Contactless Syndromic Surveillance Platform for Influenza-Like Illness in Hospital Waiting Areas

Hossain FA, Lover AA, Corey GA, Reich NG, Rahman T (2020). Proceedings of the ACM on Interactive, Mobile, Wearable and Ubiquitous Technologies, 4(1): 1.

Evaluating the ALERT algorithm for local outbreak onset detection in seasonal infectious disease surveillance data

Brown AC, Lauer SA, Robinson C, Nyquist C, Rao S, Reich NG (2020). Statistics in Medicine.


Accuracy of real-time multi-model ensemble forecasts for seasonal influenza in the U.S.

Reich NG, McGowan CJ, Yamana TK, Tushar A, Ray E, Osthus D, Kandula S, Brooks LC, Crawford-Crudell W, Gibson GC, Moore E, Silva R, Biggerstaff M, Johanssom M, Rosenfeld R, Shaman J (2019). PLOS Comp Bio, 15(11): e1007486.

An open challenge to advance probabilistic forecasting for dengue epidemics

Johansson MA, ... Reich NG, Cummings DAT, Lauer SA, ... Brown AC, ... Chretien JP (2019). PNAS, 116(48): 24268-24274.

Opioids in the USA: Disparities in addiction and incarceration

Kazemi A, Kennedy C, Silverman G, Reich NG (2019). Significance, 16(5): 6-7.

Reply to Bracher: Scoring probabilistic forecasts to maximize public health interpretability

Reich NG, Osthus D, Ray EL, Yamana TK, Biggerstaff M, Johansson MA, Rosenfeld R, Shaman J (2019). PNAS.

N95 Respirators vs Medical Masks for Preventing Influenza Among Health Care Personnel

Radonovich LJ, Simberkoff MS, Bessesen MT, Brown AC, Cummings DAT, Gaydos CA, Los JG, Krosche AE, Gibert CL, Gorse GJ, Nyquist AC, Reich NG, Rodriguez-Barradas MC, Price CS, Perl TM (2019). JAMA, 322(9): 824-833.

Technology to advance infectious disease forecasting for outbreak management

George GB, Taylor W, Shaman J, Rivers C, Paul B, O'Toole T, Johansson MA, Hirschman L, Biggerstaff M, Asher J, Reich NG (2019). Nature Communications, 10(3932).

Using "outbreak science" to strengthen the use of models during epidemics

Rivers C, Chretien JP, Riley S, Pavlin J, Woodward A, Brett-Major D, Berry IB, Morton L, Jarman RG, Biggerstaff M, Johansson MA, Reich NG, Meyer D, Snyder MR, Pollett S (2019). Nature Communications, 10(3932).

A collaborative multiyear, multimodel assessment of seasonal influenza forecasting in the United States

Reich NG, Brooks L, Spencer F, Kandula S, McGowan C, Moore E, Osthus D, Ray E, Tushar A,Yamana T, Biggerstaff M, Johansson MA, Rosenfeld R, and Shaman J (2019). PNAS, 116(8): 3146-3154.

Collaborative efforts to forecast seasonal influenza in the United States, 2015–2016

McGowan C, Biggerstaff M, Johansson M, Apfeldorf K, Ben-Nun M, Brooks L, Convertino M, Erraguntla M, Farrow D, Freeze J, Ghosh S, Hyun S, Kandula S, Lega J, Liu Y, Michaud N, Morita H, Niemi J, Ramakrishnan N, Ray EL, Reich NG, Riley P, Shaman J, Tibshirani R, Vespignani A, Zhang Q, Reed C (2019). Sci Rep, 9(683).


Prospective forecasts of annual dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence in Thailand, 2010–2014

Lauer SA, Sakrejda K, Ray EL, Keegan LT, Bi Q, Suangtho P, Hinjoy S, Iamsirithaworn S, Suthachana S, Laosiritaworn Y, Cummings DAT, Lessler J and Reich NG (2018). PNAS, 115(10): E2175-E2182.

Prediction of infectious disease epidemics via weighted density ensembles

Ray EL, Reich NG (2018). PLOS Comp Bio, 14(2): e1005910.

Preprints: An underutilized mechanism to accelerate outbreak science

Johansson MA, Reich NG, Meyers LA, Lipsitch M (2018). PLOS Medicine, 15(4): e1002549.

Quantifying the Risk and Cost of Active Monitoring for Infectious Diseases

Reich NG, Lessler J, Varma JK, Vora NM (2018). Nat Sci Rep, 8: 1093.

Protecting Healthcare Personnel in Outpatient Settings: The Influence of Mandatory Versus Nonmandatory Influenza Vaccination Policies on Workplace Absenteeism During Multiple Respiratory Virus Seasons

Frederick J, Brown AC, Cummings DAT, Gaydos CA, Gibert CL, Gorse GJ, Los JG, Nyquist AC, Perl TM, Price CS, Radonovich LJ, Reich NG, Rodriguez-Barradas MC, Bessesen MT, Simberkoff MS, for the ResPECT Teama (2018). Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol, 39.


Infectious Disease Prediction with Kernel Conditional Density Estimation

Ray EL, Sakrejda K, Lauer SA, Johansson MA, Reich NG (2017). Stat Med, 36: 4908-4929.


Challenges in Real-Time Prediction of Infectious Disease: A Case Study of Dengue in Thailand

Reich NG, Lauer SA, Sakrejda K, Iamsirithaworn S, Hinjoy S, Suangtho P, Suthachana S, Clapham H, Salje H, Cummings DAT, Lessler J (2016). PLOS Neg Trop Dis, 10: e0004761.

Case Study in Evaluating Time Series Prediction Models Using the Relative Mean Absolute Error

Reich NG, Lessler J, Sakrejda K, Lauer SA, Iamsirithaworn S, Cummings DAT (2016). Am Stat, 70: 285-292.

Time to Key Events in the Course of Zika Infection and their Implications for Surveil- lance: A Systematic Review and Pooled Analysis

Lessler J, Ott CT, Carcelen AC, Konikoff JM, Williamson J, Bi Q, Reich NG, Cummings DAT, Kucirka LM, Chaisson LH (2016). Bull WHO, 94.

The Respiratory Protection Effectiveness Clinical Trial (ResPECT): A Cluster-Randomized Comparison of Respirator and Medical Mask Effectiveness against Respiratory Infections in Healthcare Personnel

Radonovich LJ, Bessesen M, Cummings DAT, Eagan A, Gaydos C, Gibert C, Gorse G, Nyquist C, Reich NG, Rodriguez-Barradas M, Savor-Price C, Shaffer R, Simberkoff M, Perl TM (2016). BMC Inf Dis, 16: 243.


Triggering Interventions for Influenza: The ALERT Algorithm

Reich NG, Cummings DAT, Lauer SA, Zorn M, Robinson C, Nyquist AC, Price CS, Simberkoff M, Radonovich LJ, Perl TM (2015). Clin Inf Dis, 60: 499-504.

The Effect of Cluster Size Variability on Statistical Power in Cluster-Randomized Trials

Lauer SA, Kleinman K, Reich NG (2015). PLOS ONE, 10: e0119074.


Interactions between serotypes of dengue highlight epidemiological impact of cross-immunity

Reich NG, Shrestha S, King AA, Rohani P, Lessler J, Kalayanarooj S, Yoon IK, Gibbons RV, Burke DS, Cummings DAT. (2013). JRSI, 10: 20130414.


Empirical power and sample size calculations for cluster-randomized and cluster-randomized crossover studies

Reich NG, Myers JA, Obeng D, Milstone AM, Perl TM (2012). PLOS ONE, 7: e35564.

Estimating Absolute and Relative Case Fatality Ratios from Infectious Disease Surveillance Data

Reich NG, Lessler J, Cummings DAT, Brookmeyer R (2012). Biometrics, 68(2): 598-606.


Estimating incubation period distributions with coarse data.

Reich NG, Lessler J, Cummings DAT, Brookmeyer R (2009). Statistics in Medicine, 28(22): 2769-84.